Country-Level Size Effects in International Asset Pricing

Authors

  • Crina Pungulescu Institute for Economic Forecasting - National Institute of Economic Research and Romanian Academy

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5195/emaj.2021.230

Keywords:

Finance, Market Size, Emerging Markets, Market Integration, Capital Controls

Abstract

This paper investigates whether small markets offer higher risk-adjusted expected returns using a large set of developed and emerging markets over a time span of up to four decades. The results show that expected returns are significantly lower in larger markets, an effect more pronounced in emerging rather than developed countries. The relationship between size effects and the level of market segmentation in emerging countries is further explored in the context of financial market integration. The size premium is strong and persistent over time independently of the (fading) segmentation premium documented in the literature. Markets size effects remain statistically and economically significant in the presence of various control factors and account for up to 1% per year in terms of expected returns in emerging countries.

References

Asness, C. S., J. M. Liew, and R. L. Stevens (1997). Parallels between the cross-sectional predictability of stock and country return. Journal of Portfolio Management 23, 79 - 87.

Baele, L. (2005). Volatility Spillover E_ects in European Equity Markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 40, 373-401.

Banz, R. W. (1981). The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics 3, 3 - 18.

Barry, C. B., E. Goldreyer, L. Lockwood and M. Rodriguez (2001). Robustness of Size and Value Effects in Emerging Equity Markets, 1985-2000 Emerging Markets Review 3, 1 - 30.

Bekaert, G., C. B. Erb, C. R. Harvey and T. E. Viskanta (1997). The Cross-Sectional Determinants of Emerging Equity Market Returns Quantitative Investing of the Global Markets: Strategies, Tactics, and Advanced Analytical Techniques, chap. 11, pp. 221 - 272 (Glenlake Publishing).

Bekaert, G. and C. R. Harvey (2000). Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets. Journal of Finance 55, 565-613.

Brown, P., A.W. Kleidon, and T.A. Marsh (1983). New Evidence on the Nature of size-related anomalies in Stock Prices. Journal of Financial Economics 12, 33-56.

Cakici, N., Y. Tang and A. Yan (2016). Do the size, value, and momentum factors drive stock returns in emerging markets? Journal of International Money and Finance 69, 179 - 204.

De Jong, F. and F. A. De Roon (2005). Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets. Journal of Financial Economics 78, 583 - 613.

Edison, H. J. and F. E. Warnock (2003). A Simple Measure of The Intensity of Capital Controls. Journal of Empirical Finance 10, 81 - 103.

Erb, C. B., C.R. Harvey, and T.E. Viskanta (1996). Political Risk, Economic Risk and Financial Risk. Financial Analysts Journal 52, 28 - 46.

Estrada, J. (2000). The cost of equity in emerging markets: A downside risk approach. Emerging Markets Quarterly 4, 19 - 30.

Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance 47, 427 - 465.

Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1993). “Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds”, Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3 - 56.

Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1998). Value versus Growth: The International Evidence. Journal of Finance 53, 1975 - 1999.

Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (2008). Directed or Undirected? A New Index to Check for Directionality of Relations in Socio-Economic Networks. Journal of Finance 63, 1653 - 1678.

Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (2012). Size, Value, and Momentum in International Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics 105, 457 - 472.

Ferguson, M. F. and R. L. Shockley (2003). Equilibrium “Anomalies". Journal of Finance 58, 2549-2580.

Ferson, W. E. and C. R. Harvey (1993). The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns. Review of Financial Studies 6, 527 - 566.

Fratzscher, M. (2002). Financial Market Integration in Europe: on the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets. International Journal of Finance and Economics 7, 165-193.

Harvey, C. R. (2000). The drivers of expected returns in international markets Emerging Markets Quarterly 3, 32 - 49.

Henry, P. B. (2000). Stock Market liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices. Journal of Finance 55, 529-564.

Hou, K., G. A. Karolyi, and B. C. Kho (2011). What Factors Drive Global Stock Returns? Review of Financial Studies 24, 2527- 2574.

Keppler, M. and H. D. Traub (1993). The Small-Country Effect: Small Markets Beat Large Markets. Journal of Investing 2, 17 - 24.

Lambert, M., Fays, B. and Hübner, G. (2020). Factoring Characteristics into Returns: A Clinical Study on the SMB and HML Portfolio Construction Methods. Journal of Banking and Finance, 114.

Lambert, M. and Hübner, G. (2015). Size Matters, Book-To-Market Does Not! The Fama-French Empirical CAPM Revisited. Working Paper.

Leahy, M. P. (1998). New Summary Measures of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 811 - 818.

Li, J. (2021). What Drives the Size and Value Factors? Working Paper.

Rouwenhorst, K. G. (1999). Local return factors and turnover in emerging stock markets. Journal of Finance 54, 1439 - 1464.

Serra, A. P. (2003). The cross-sectional determinants of returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets' Stocks. Journal of Emerging Market Finance 2, 123 - 162.

Van der Hart, J., E. Slagter, and D. Van Dijk (2003). Stock Selection Strategies in Emerging Markets. Journal of Empirical Finance 10, 107 - 134.

Downloads

Published

2021-09-08

Issue

Section

Articles