Volatility Model Choice for Sub-Saharan Frontier Equity Markets - A Markov Regime Switching Bayesian Approach

Authors

  • Carl Hope Korkpoe University of Cape Coast
  • Nathaniel Howard University of Cape Coast

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5195/emaj.2019.172

Keywords:

Regime-Switching, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Frontier Equity Markets, Business, Statistics

Abstract

We adopt a granular approach to estimating the risk of equity returns in sub-Saharan African frontier equity markets under the assumption that, returns are influenced by developments in the underlying economy. Four countries were studied – Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. We found heterogeneity in the evolution of volatility across these markets and also that two-regime switching volatility models describe better the heteroscedastic returns generating processes in these markets using the deviance information criteria. We backtest the results to assess whether the models are a good fit for the data. We concluded that, the selected models are the most suitable for predicting the volatility of future returns in the markets studied. 

Author Biography

Carl Hope Korkpoe, University of Cape Coast

Lecturer

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Published

2019-08-05

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