Volatility Model Choice for Sub-Saharan Frontier Equity Markets - A Markov Regime Switching Bayesian Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5195/emaj.2019.172Keywords:
Regime-Switching, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Frontier Equity Markets, Business, StatisticsAbstract
We adopt a granular approach to estimating the risk of equity returns in sub-Saharan African frontier equity markets under the assumption that, returns are influenced by developments in the underlying economy. Four countries were studied – Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. We found heterogeneity in the evolution of volatility across these markets and also that two-regime switching volatility models describe better the heteroscedastic returns generating processes in these markets using the deviance information criteria. We backtest the results to assess whether the models are a good fit for the data. We concluded that, the selected models are the most suitable for predicting the volatility of future returns in the markets studied.
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